Betfair Historical Data Horse Racing Only Rare
Peter's article is excellent. What does Peter mean by odds offered at all times? As we know that the odds vary all the time. Does he mean the sum average of the odds range? What I think Peter means is this:If the same horse was offered at odds of 3.1, 3.2, 3.3. 3.4 & 3.5 at various points throughout the betting day then each set of odds is treated separately.If the horse won then it would increase the strike rate of all of the horses that traded at 3.1, 3.2, 3.3. 3.4 & 3.5.If the horse lost then it would decrease the strike rate of all of the horses that traded at 3.1, 3.2, 3.3.
3.4 & 3.5.But you are better asking Peter exactly what he meant.The bottom line is:If you don't have and edge, you will lose long term. As for: 'I have also studied when the market is most efficient, but that's another story.' I've done a lot of reading on this subject and done some research.What I concluded was that the market is at its most efficient at the off.To be precise it's the odds that the last bet on each horse was matched at just before the off.If this is what Peter found then there is a problem.In order to make a consistent long term profit you need to back at odds which are greater than those at the off and/or lay at odds which are less than those at the off.Because you don't know what the odds at the off are going to be you can't do this. Just noticed this thread. I have done EMH in my BSc too and plotted win rate against expected probability from SP.
Indeed the wisdom of the betting crowd is very efficient. See here for the graph.
You may think you need a lot of knowledge about racing to be able to find a front runner with which to put in a back to lay, or something similar. But it's not that difficult if you use one of the.
With Betfair offering near 100% books and an API now is a great time to be investigating the markets through sports trading. So much so that I was offered a place at Oxford to return to study after 20 years out of academia to do a masters. And you can be sure that Betfair will play a large part of my research come October. It seems to me that in this the way in which you calculate efficiency seems to matter. Also with regards to when the market is most efficient, in horse racing it would make sense for the market to be most efficient when the uncertainties are reduced as much as possible, which means when the market knows as much as possible, which suggests the market is most efficient after we've seen the horses in the paddock and loaded. From this, it makes sense that the start price is the most efficient. Whether or not this is true would require back-testing, maybe someone else can provide insight?
Maybe there is some part of my brain that is missing a trick but I do not believe that the Betfair markets are 'efficient' at any time. And as for claiming that a market price is 'efficient', there is no meaning to this statement that makes any logical sense. A market price can only be 'accurate' or not; and its final value may or may not be arrived at 'efficiently'. Efficient: Achieving maximum productivity with minimum wasted effort or expense.
If you were to ask what is the most efficient way to form a market then arriving at a price would certainly take a different route than it does in Betfair. At no time (in most races) are the odds accurate since every man and his dog knows that the 'most accurate odds' are established very close to the off time, having taken a circuitous route that may take it on a journey as far as 50% or more away from its final 'accuracy'.
- For horseracing and greyhound racing, if a market is not scheduled to be turned in-play, but Betfair fails to suspend the market at the relevant time then all bets matched after the official 'off' time will be void. Betfair aims to. The Betfair rules have been prepared in various languages other than Spanish for reference only.
- Even trying to lay the field at 2/1 you may only get 2 matched resulting in a small loss, on rare occasions get 3 matched just breaking even. 2) I've observed quite a few races where there have been several horses across the track 2 or 3 furlongs out battling away looked at my betfair screen expecting to see.
I have claimed before that the fact that SP strongly correlates with Actual results is not proof that SP odds are 'accurate' but rather that by manipulation of odds over many many events, the sum total of odds verses results can be made to appear in sync. No single event can be isolated as evidence of the theorem. The route taken by odds, especially in the final 10 minutes, is proof that odds can certainly NOT be described as 'accurate' for the vast majority of that 10 minute period and only finally arrives at its most accurate value at the off time. The question as to whether the trading process practised in Betfair is efficient has to consider that evidentially odds do swing, sometimes quite wildly and there are clearly not taking the most efficient path; unless motorists who want to get from Birmingham to Manchester think that efficiency means travelling though Devon and Aberdeen several times.
Another thought provoking question is whether bookmakers follow traders or vice versa on Betfair and Peter says ' There is much debate about who follows who on the betting exchanges. Do bookmakers lead the betting exchange price or do the betting exchanges lead the bookmakers? I would have argued in the early days that it was definitely bookmakers that led exchanges. But now I think most people reference exchanges before accepting or pricing just before the off'. Anyone who trades on Betfair regularly on the pre race markets does so by following the the odds action. It is rare for traders to 'make' markets and most traders (and there are fewer than most people realise) earn a crust by capitalising on odds movement without intentionally creating those movements themselves.
Now if Bookmakers are also following the odds on Betfair and adjusting their own books accordingly then it begs the question as to exactly 'Who' is driving the odds up or down in an extremely inefficient manner so as to arrive at a seemingly accurate price by the off time? James1st wrote:Maybe there is some part of my brain that is missing a trick but I do not believe that the Betfair markets are 'efficient' at any time. And as for claiming that a market price is 'efficient', there is no meaning to this statement that makes any logical sense.
A market price can only be 'accurate' or not; and its final value may or may not be arrived at 'efficiently'. Efficient: Achieving maximum productivity with minimum wasted effort or expense. There are 2 statements here.
Firstly some people claim that Betfair markets are efficient. My comments related directly to the efficiency of the process by which a horses odds reach SP, viz a trading journey that is most certainly not efficient. Whether or not there is any desire to research methods that are more efficient isn't worth the debate since the Betfair process of trading to an SP price is all that currently exists and that is likely to continue as the preferred method by which SP is determined. The second statement relates to the accuracy of SP and there is absolutely no correlation between the SP arrived at in Betfair and the efficiency of the process. My conclusion was that the process itself is inefficient because whether you choose a route through Aberdeen/Devon or you choose to go directly to Manchester, either party arriving at Manchester town hall demonstrates accuracy but not efficiency. Moving on to the accuracy of SP's; it is obvious that taken globally, all SP's do in fact correlate very well to actual results.
But individually SP's can be and are very wide of the mark and it all depends on how you formulate the subsets of the global view. For example, the subset of SP's that select 3yo Hcps only will also demonstrate that SP correlates very well with actual results. However, if you exclude from that subset all the horses where the jockeys are wearing orange shirts or orange caps, then the correlation between SP and actual results doesn't look so accurate. Now, if individual SP's can show a great deal of deviation from the norm and subsets of the global view are also subject to error then one has to conclude that there are forces at work that manipulate global SP's to coincide with actual results. I am not talking of some secret society here, but I am pointing a finger at those that have most to lose by allowing average SP's to outstrip actual results. The fact that global SP's can be demonstrated on a graph to equate to winning chances may well be an indesputable truth but it is certainly one that masks the large number of anomalies that exist below the surface.
If I was to back 5000 home favourites in the football, 100 times each randomly in the 24 hours before kick off and the same favourite 100 during the game (also randomly), would I end up losing or gaining anything? If the markets are efficient I should be level minus commission. But hold on a minute my commission is 5%. Some of you are on 25% and a few are even on 60%. So is the market defining the true% chance of Newcastle winning at home over the long term or is it pricing the true price plus an average commission?
Going back to randomly backing pregame and inplay. It seems that the two things that move a market are lack of money and lots of money. I could be wrong (as I am constantly told I am by my family and friends).so the news or opinion creates this money situation. Please correct me if I am. My point is that the pre-game price is pushed back and forth pre-game within a set range covering 0.?% to 10%+ sometimes without any news.
Horse Racing Nation
So is the range x% working within the commission rate? Or is there long term value? For the pregame price to be efficient doesn't it have to be right any given moment base on all available information.
But what about Bully money that pushes the price back and forth and fear and greed etc etc On Peters Blog yesterday he priced man city at 2.0 I spent the last hours before kick off scalping it. It sat around 1.97ish then off upto 2.0. A few grand taken 2.02 for the luck ones then it's backed into to 1.88. Last few seconds I got matched between 1.88 and 1.91. Which price is right? In play is the same, a fav corner goes up the odds on fav can come in 3 to 5 ticks. Hows many active users know the true chance of that ball going in?
Can excitement and desperation move this price? And which price is efficient? This is happening thousands of times a week. There are so many ways to price a football game.which one is correct?
Also the efficient market should give me a price based on history and available news. If Man City are are 2.0 and they lost their next 4 games their price would alter.
Therefore the efficient market (if it exists) has to be organic and move based on the perception of the future. At sometime even in it's purist sense will the price be wrong during it's transition? I hope you understand. James2nd wrote. Efficiency in the economic sense is the ability to discount current information into the price. At any one time the price represents all that is known by the crowd and its wisdom. If new information enters the market then that information will be digested by the crowd and may or may not move that price.
SP is regarded as the most efficient price because the race is about to begin and everyone that had an opinion has made it with their bets. When the race starts the prices jump about as horses vie for position. As the winner crosses the line its price is 1.01 because the market has discounted that information (it won) into the price. In precise terms the horse race betting market is referred to as 'semi-strong form efficient' ie information takes a while to be discounted but discounted it is.
Efficiency in this case is not mechanical efficiency nor the efficiency of Betfair to match layers and backers on the order book. It is just the crowd's ability to discount information into the price. Prices move around in the 10 mins afore the race start as the bookies, connections and insider traders lump their money on and the crowd takes stock. By taking the SP and matching it against actual outcome you get the graph I posted above. The two lines almost match thus proving market efficiency. There is a favourite/longshot bias due to backers avoiding odds-on favourites and chasing losses with long priced no-hopers.
Other than that, the market is semi-strong efficient by any economists standards. Try using Google's Scholar search engine to search for papers on the subject. Many economists use the horse betting market to cut their teeth for financial market research as they are analagous to one another. Search for names like Ziemba and Hausch and follow the papers they cite in theirs. It's a fascinating subject.
Now, the efficiency of the place market is something else entirely but I'm saving that for my MSc. James Primero.
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Betfair Historical Data Horse Racing Only Rarely
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